Almost a month ago, CauseScience posted: Will Ebola spread to the USA in September? A new study suggests there is a small probability it could.
The recent confirmation of the first Ebola case in Texas confirms the studies predictions… to the day. The calculated risk of an Ebola case in the USA by the end of september was 18%.
To jog your memory of that post:
A study published in PLOS Currents: Outbreaks calculated the likelihood of Ebola cases coming to the United States and other countries based on virtual airline traffic. The study concluded that within 3-6 weeks the ‘probability of international spread outside the African region is small, but not negligible.’
… the authors of a new analysis say many countries — including the U.S. — should gear up to recognize, isolate and treat imported cases of Ebola.
The probability of seeing at least one imported case of Ebola in the U.S. is as high as 18 percent by late September…
These predictions are based on the flow of airline passengers from West Africa and the difficulty of preventing an infected passenger from boarding a flight.